A change of -11% or more over ten trading days has a 24% event probability, which has occurred 57 times out of 235 in the last year.Luminar stock declined -11% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which remained roughly flat.A change of -14% or more over five trading days has a 11% event probability, which has occurred 27 times out of 240 in the last year.Luminar stock declined -14% over a five-day trading period ending, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which remained roughly flat over the same period.See our analysis Luminar Stock Chance of Rise for more details.įive Days: LAZR -14%, vs. So, is LAZR stock likely to rise further in the coming weeks and months or is a correction looking more likely? Per the Trefis machine learning engine which analyzes historical stock price movements, LAZR stock only has a 37% chance of a rise over the next month (21 trading days). For perspective, EV bellwether Tesla stock is down by about 17% year-to-date in 2022. Separately, electric vehicle stocks, in general, have underperformed the market in recent weeks, due to rising bond yields and this could also be hurting Luminar. It’s possible that investors are a bit concerned about these transactions given that the company hasn’t started meaningful commercial operations yet, with profitability and positive cash flows likely several years away. Firstly, Luminar issued about $550 million worth of convertible debt last month, while buying back around $250 million of its stock. There are likely a couple of factors driving the recent sell-off. The stock also remains down by about 17% over the last month. Luminar stock, a company that develops lidar sensors for use in self-driving cars, has declined by roughly 15% over the last week (five trading days), underperforming the S&P 500 which was down by about 4%. (Photo Illustration by Rafael Henrique/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images BRAZIL - 4: In this photo illustration a Luminar logo seen displayed on a smartphone.
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